Player Comparisons
The following charts break down the WAR estimates of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, and Baseball Prospectus into their constituent components, allowing more in-depth comparisons between players. These components of WAR are:
- Batting: Value created as a hitter relative to average
- Fielding: Value created as a defender, relative to the average at their position
- Baserunning: The value of their stolen bases and more complicated baserunning events like going first-to-third on a single, relative to average
- Replacement: This value converts from a “relative to average” baseline to “relative to replacement level”, given a player’s position and playing time. It is a measure of how difficult it would be to fill this player’s position with average production.
If that all seems a bit confusing, I’d recommend you check out the What Is WAR tab first. So far I’ve only implemented this for batters, so you won’t see any pitchers here.
Select any two of the top-25 players below to compare:
Permutation WAR
This feature is perhaps my only novel contribution beyond what is presented by the original WAR providers. The idea is this: there is nothing about WAR that says the FanGraphs estimate of Batting Value must be paired with the FanGraphs estimate of Fielding value; they are independent. Thus, other permutations of the WAR components are equally valid, for example adding together FG Batting, BR Fielding, BP Baserunning, and BR Replacement Value. With three implementations of four components, this enables 3^4=81 different semi-independent WAR estimates, which provides a much better representation of the spread of uncertainty than just the three main WAR totals.
By comparing these 81 permutations head to head, the plot below evaluates how certain we can be that one player is better than another (according to WAR). Hover over any permutation to see how it is calculated.
My guidelines for interpreting this plot are as follows: unless Player A leads in 100% of permutations, it cannot be said that Player A is better than Player B according to these WAR estimates. This is because there exists at least one perfectly valid WAR formulation in which Player B is better.
Component Uncertainty
These plots aggregate the estimates of each component of WAR (batting, fielding, baserunning, and replacement value) to capture the spread of their uncertainty. Bar heights indicate the average value added (or lost), while the error bars indicate the upper and lower bound of WAR permutations for that component or total.
Hover over plot elements for more info
Value Breakdowns
These plots break down each WAR estimate into its components. Most elements are hoverable or clickable for more info
For further technical details on how these figures are produced, please refer to the Details tab.